Influence of Urban Mobility Pattern on Transport-related Carbon Dioxide Emission: A Path Analysis for Sustainable Urban Mobility

Abstract

Urban mobility plays a central role in ensuring the efficient movement of people and goods while supporting economic and social activities. However, rapid urban expansion and increasing travel demand have intensified transport-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. This study examines how urban form and socio-economic characteristics influence transport-related CO₂ emissions through residents' mobility patterns using a path analysis approach within a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results show that urban form and socio-economic conditions jointly shape urban mobility. Greater distance from the central business district increases travel distance (β = 0.45, p < 0.001) and indirectly increases CO₂ emissions (β = 0.15, p < 0.05). In contrast, higher land-use diversity indirectly reduces emissions by promoting public transport use and reducing private car dependence (β = −0.13, p < 0.01), while higher building density reduces emissions by increasing jeepney use (β = −0.11, p < 0.05). Car ownership exerts the strongest socio-economic influence, increasing private car use (β = 0.45, p < 0.001) and indirectly increasing CO₂ emissions (β = 0.21, p < 0.001). Higher household income also increases emissions through greater private car and taxi use (β = 0.19, p < 0.001), whereas older age indirectly increases emissions through reduced jeepney use (β = 0.13, p < 0.01). These findings demonstrate that urban structure and socio-economic characteristics influence transport-related CO₂ emissions primarily through travel behavior, highlighting the need for compact urban development, mixed land use, and sustainable transport policies to promote low-carbon urban mobility.